Colleen Foraker

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Santa Clara County

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Trends At A Glance Apr 2013 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Home Price +8.8%($800,000) $735,000 +28.0%($625,000)
Average Sales Price +8.6%($1,032,630) $950,914 +24.5%($829,307)
No. of Homes Sold +22.7%(989) 806 -9.3%(1091)
Pending Properties -0.1%(1427) 1428 -34.1%(2164)
Foreclosures Sold -38.2%(21) 34 -84.2%(133)
Short Sales Sold -8.5%(75) 82 -57.4%(176)
Active Listings +19.1%(979) 822 -40.8%(1655)
Active Foreclosures -27.8%(13) 18 -88.0%(1655)
Active Short Sales -25.0%(18) 24 -95.1%(369)
Sales Price vs. List Price +0.9%(105.9%) 105.0% +5.3%(100.6%)
Average Days on Market -17.0%(22) (26) -51.8%(46)

Market MomentumEnlarge Graph

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Santa Clara County: Average Price for Homes Over a Million

The average price for single-family, re-sale homes went back over $1,000,000 for the first time since November 2007. The average price for homes was up 24.5% year-over-year.

The rapid decline in the number of bank-owned and short sales has been credited with moving the statistical pricing numbers up rapidly.

There is something to be said for that theory. In January 2012, 40% of all homes sold were either bank-owned or short sales. Last month, that number was less than 10%.

I expect as bank-owned and short sales become less of a factor in the market, price increases should start going back into single-digits.

April Market Statistics

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes reached $800,000 last month, which, again, is a level last seen In November 2007.

The median price for homes was again up by double-digits, gaining 28% year-over-year. The median price has been higher than the year before for the past fifteen months, with the gain in the past seven months being more than 20%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 9.3% year-over-year. There were 989 homes sold last month

The sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for the past fourteen months. It was 105.9% in April. That is the highest the ratio has been since May 2000 when it was 107.7%.

Pending home sales were up 34.1% year-over-year. That’s the sixth month in a row pending sales have been lower than the year before, portending a slow first half in 2013.

Sales Momentum…

for homes dropped 1.2 points to -1.1.

Pricing Momentum…

has been on the up-swing the past fourteen months. It rose 1.2 points to +18.2.

Condo Statistics…

The median price for condos was up 50% year-over-year, and it went over $500,000 last month ($510,000), which is the highest it has been since March 2008. That’s thirteen straight months of double-digit gains.

Closed sales were off 7.2%, while pending sales fell 34%.

Condo inventory was down 48.2% from last April. As of the 5th of the month, there were only 244 condos for sale in the county.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Apr 26, 2013 --  Although the economy was in better shape in the first quarter of 2013 than it was during the last of 2012, there are few indications that it is poised to break out into a period of hot growth. Quite the contrary, in fact, since there are strong headwinds keeping the economy down at the moment which don't seem likely to diminish quickly.

At the same time, the effects of those headwinds do produce some tangible benefits. A slower world economy has a lessened demand for fuel, so gasoline and petroleum prices have fallen. That helps lessen inflation, which in turn helps keep interest rates low. Lower gasoline and other input prices put more spendable dollars in consumer pockets, which can provide considerable economic benefit, and lower interest rates can help borrowers to buy homes more easily or refinance to good effect.

HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased by a single basis point (0.03%) to 3.65%, a new low for 2013. The FRMI's 15-year companion dropped by four basis points (.04%) to 2.89% for the week, a new all-time low. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs followed along with a decline of just one basis points (0.01%), falling to an average rate of 3.28%, accompanied by a one-hundredth percentage point slip in the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs to an average 2.60% for the week. a new low water-mark for the most popular ARM.

Sales of existing homes leveled off in March, declining by 0.6% to an annualized rate of 4.92 million units. In fact, after a string of more or less regular gains, sales have been holding at roughly this level for the past five months. Although available inventory on the market did expand slightly to 4.7 months of supply, this is still a number well below the six months of supply which is considered normal. In the existing home sales report, the Realtors noted that a lack of supply seemed to be hurting sales growth, but tight inventories are fostering higher home prices. The 11.8% gain in prices when compared against March 2012 continued a string of double (or near double) digit gains in each of the last six months. Price gains are said to be occurring due to declining sales of low-priced "distressed" inventory, but it just may be that sellers are able to hold out for higher prices in hopes of recovering some of the equity lost during the price crash of a few years ago.

Foreclosure statistics

Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in Santa Clara County continued upward in March from February, rising 6.3%. They were down 67.1% year-over-year.

Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, were down 27.8% compared to February, and were down 61.7% year-over-year.

After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements.

Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank.

Properties going back to the bank dropped 14.3% in March from February. Year-over-year, they were down 83.8%.

The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 59.5% year-over-year.

The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined by 65.7% year-over-year.

The total number of properties owned by banks was down 56.2% year-over-year to about 693.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to http://foreclosureradar.com.

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Sales BreakdownEnlarge Graph

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Sales To DateEnlarge Graph

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Sale Price RatioEnlarge Graph

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